The following was posted (10 Sept 10) by Robert Rapier:
Leaked Study on Peak Oil Warns of Severe Global Energy Crisis
This week a study on peak oil by a German military think tank was leaked on the Internet. The document shows that the German government is closely studying the issue of peak oil, and is aware of the potential for serious consequences as oil production declines. The study is reminiscent of the Hirsch Report, commissioned by the U.S. Department of Energy, that warned of the risks posed by peak oil.
The focus of the document is on the topic of finite resources, using Peak Oil as an example. The report is part of a series of publications focused on long term (30 years) with the intent to enable the Ministry of Defense to take action early.
In the past, resources have always triggered conflicts, mostly of regional nature. For the future, the authors expect this to become a global problem, as scarcity (mainly of crude oil) will affect everybody.
The report sees significant risks arising from an unavoidable peak in oil production, which go beyond gradual shifts in energy systems and economies. This will likely lead to economic change and new geopolitical risks that affect much more than just what we can anticipate. The overall ability to describe exact outcomes is very limited, as many scenarios are possible, and further research is required.
Overall, more emphasis needs to be put on understanding and shaping international relationships in respect to energy security, anticipating and integrating the ongoing shift to different players in a resource-constrained world.
Note: the report is written in German and this link takes you to a translation of the high points.